News is starting to leak that the Large Hadron Collider may have accomplished its primary mission of confirming the existence of the hypothesised and heretofore elusive subatomic particle, the Higgs Boson. And sure, billions of Euros worth of state-of-the-art high-energy machinery and an army of experimental and theoretical physicists probably ... [Read more...]

Due to my work with a multitude of statistical packages in my career I may be able to evaluate a lot of them. I’ve first used Excel for my calculations as most of the normal users do. I like the idea behind a spreadsheet and the combination of data ... [Read more...]

A primary problem data scientists face again and again is: how to properly adapt or treat variables so they are best possible components of a regression. Some analysts at this point delegate control to a shape choosing system like neural nets. I feel such a choice gives up far too ... [Read more...]

Wanting to start a family the natural way? For a healthy 45-year-old woman, you may be in for a five-year wait. That's the conclusion of Richie Cotton, a UK-based data scientist, who discovered when he and his girlfriend wanted to start a family that statistics on how long it takes ... [Read more...]

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On July 25th, I’ll be presenting at the Seattle R Meetup about implementing Bayesian nonparametrics in R. If you’re not sure what Bayesian nonparametric methods are, they’re a family of methods that allow you to fit traditional statistical models, such as mixture models or latent factor models, ... [Read more...]

Many readers of this blog will know that I’m a big fan of Bayesian methods, in large part because automated inference tools like JAGS allow modelers to focus on the types of structure they want to extract from data rather than worry about the algorithmic details of how they ... [Read more...]

First of all, useR 2012 (the 8th International R User Conference) was, hands down, the best-organized conference I’ve had the luck to attend. The session chairs kept everything moving on time, tactfully but sternly; the catering was delicious and varied; … Continue reading → [Read more...]

The Time Series Data Library is a collection of about 800 time series that I have maintained since about 1992, and hosted on my personal website. It includes data from a lot of time series textbooks, as well as many other series that I’ve either collected for student projects or helpful ... [Read more...]

10 days ago, a study published on http://www.annalsofepidemiology.org/ mentioned that "Death has a preference for birthdays" (as claimed in the title). The conclusion of the paper is that, in general, birthdays do not evoke a postponement mechanism... [Read more...]

Yet another full day working on Bayesian Core with Jean-Michel in Carnon… This morning, I ran along the canal for about an hour and at last saw some pink flamingos close enough to take pictures (if only to convince my daughter that there were flamingos in the area!). Then I ... [Read more...]

Just a quick note that I’ve posted the slides, code, and dataset from my useR 2012 talk. I’m having a great time here in Nashville and will write up a conference review soon, with links to the many excellent packages … Continue reading → [Read more...]

Once again working on my slides for the AMSI Lecture 2012 tour, it took me a while to get the following LaTeX code (about the family reunion puzzle) to work: \begin{frame}[fragile,label=notleM2] \slidetitle{A family meeting} \begin{block}{Random switch of couples} \only{ \begin{itemize} \item Pick two ... [Read more...]

I fought with my LαTεX compiler this morning as it did not want to deal with my code: looking on forums for incompatibilities between beamer and algorithmic, and adding all kinds of packages, to no avail. Until I realised one \STATE was missing: (This is connected with my ... [Read more...]

A few more comments on the specific entry on ABC written by Mikael Sunnåker et al…. The entry starts with the representation of the posterior probability of an hypothesis, rather than with the posterior density of a model parameter, which seems to lead the novice reader astray. After all, (... [Read more...]

The design of the statistical programming language R sits in a slightly uncomfortable place between the functional programming and object oriented paradigms. The upside is you get a lot of the expressive power of both programming paradigms. A downside of this is: the not always useful variability of the language’... [Read more...]

It took us a loooong while [for various and uninteresting reasons] but we finally ended up completing a paper on ABC using empirical likelihood (EL) that was started by me listening to Brunero Liseo’s tutorial in O’Bayes-2011 in Shanghai… Brunero mentioned empirical likelihood as a semi-parametric technique w/... [Read more...]

Robin Ryder pointed out to me this new experiment run by PLoS since March 2012, namely the introduction of a new article type, “called “Topic Pages” and written in the style of a Wikipedia article“. Not only this terrific idea gives more credence to Wikipedia biology pages, at least in their ... [Read more...]

This post is written by Julien Cornebise. Last week in Aachen was the 3rd Edition of the Bayes(Pharma) workshop. Its specificity: half-and-half industry/academic participants and speakers, all in Pharmaceutical statistics, with a great care to welcome newcomers to Bayes, so as to spread as much as possible the ... [Read more...]

This week, I have seen on the internet (sorry, I cannot find proper references) the graph produced here on the right: which birthday is most likely ? The fact that I have no further information is important, since I do not know in which country suc... [Read more...]