After a thorough revision that removed most of the theoretical attempts at improving our understanding of AMIS convergence, we have now resubmitted the AMIS paper to Scandinavian Journal of Statistics and arXived the new version as well. (I remind the reader that AMIS stands for adaptive mixture importance sampling and ... [Read more...]

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RESULTS OF THE GREAT AREA PLOT QUIZ If you are the type of reader who remembers things from last week, you may remember the great area plot quiz we had running. This week, we are excited to announce that the results are in. The plot above shows answers to the ... [Read more...]

50 days ago (here), I was supposed to be very optimistic about the probability that I could reach a million viewed pages on that blog (over a bit more than two years). Unfortunately, the wind has changed and today, the probability is quite low... ... [Read more...]

Just to point out there still is room for more participants to the Adap’skiii workshop! We have now reached 60 participants for this Utah workshop and would welcome more, quite obviously! All participants are also free to present a poster on the evening of the 4th, in the bar. Filed ... [Read more...]

Every academic field seems to develop a set of generic insults based on their intellectual toolkit. Here are two examples I hear often: Probabilists and Statisticians: “I think that’s an interesting case, but it’s in a set with measure zero.” Economists: “X group’s behavior is clearly rent-seeking.” ... [Read more...]

Just two hours ago, Professor John Fox has announced on the R-help mailing list of a new (second) edition to his book “An R and S Plus Companion to Applied Regression”, now title . “An R Companion to Applied Regression, Second Edition”. John Fox is (very) well known in the R ... [Read more...]

HOW TO DISPLAY A LINE PLOT WITH COUNT INFORMATION? In a previously-mentioned paper Sharad and your DSN editor are writing up, there is the above line plot with points. The area of each point shows the count of observations. It’s done in R with ggplot2 (hooray for Hadley). We ... [Read more...]

“The measurement outputs contain at the 99% confidence level 42 new random bits. This is a much stronger statement than passing or not passing statistical tests, which merely indicate that no obvious non-random patterns are present.” arXiv:0911.3427 As often, I bought La Recherche in the station newsagent for the wrong reason! The ... [Read more...]

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Each year I try to carry out some statistical consultancy to give me experience in other areas of statistics and also to provide teaching examples. Last Christmas I was approached by a paediatric consultant from the RVI who wanted to carry out prospective survival analysis. The consultant, Bruce  Jaffray, had ... [Read more...]

Last week, I received a box of books from the International Statistical Review, for reviewing them. I thus grabbed the one whose title was most appealing to me, namely Bayesian Model Selection and Statistical Modeling by Tomohiro Ando. I am indeed interested in both the nature of testing hypotheses or ... [Read more...]

Here is a quick-and-dirty solution to Le Monde puzzle posted a few days ago: the R code counts the number of winning tickets between 1 and N, and stops when there is a proportion of 10% of winning tickets. #winning ticket win=function(n){ #decimal digits decomposition x=rep(0,4) x[4]=n%%10 m=(... [Read more...]

I was recently reading a bit about logistic regression in a book on hierarchical/multilevel modeling when I first learned about the "divide by 4 rule" for quickly interpreting coefficients in a logistic regression model in terms of the predicted probabilities of the outcome. The idea is pretty simple. The logistic ... [Read more...]

In the continuation of my earlier post on computing evidence, I read a very interesting paper by Merlise Clyde, Joyee Ghosh and Michael Littman, to appear in JCGS. It is called  Bayesian adaptive sampling for variable selection and model averaging. The sound idea at the basis of the paper is ... [Read more...]

The solution to puzzle 48 given in Le Monde this weekend is rather direct (which makes me wonder why the solution for 6 colours is still unavailable..) Here is a quick version of the solution: Consider one column, 1 say. Since 326=5×65+1, there exists one value c with at least 66 equal to c. Among [...] [Read more...]

I’ve just uploaded a new binary of ProjectTemplate to GitHub. This is a draft version of the next release, v0.2-1, which includes some fairly substantial changes and is backwards incompatible in several ways with previous versions of ProjectTemplate. Foremost of the changes is that most of the logic ... [Read more...]

SOME EMPIRICAL BASES FOR CHOOSING CERTAIN RISK REPRESENTATIONS OVER OTHERS This week DSN posts some thoughts (largely inspired by the work of former colleagues Stephanie Kurzenhäuser, Ralph Hertwig, Ulrich Hoffrage, and Gerd Gigerenzer) about communicating risks to the general public, providing references and delicious downloads where possible. Representations to ... [Read more...]

The translation of the book Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R is close to being completed. The copy-editing and page-setting are done, I have received the cover proposal and am happy with it, so it should now go to production and be ready by early January, (earlier than the tentative ... [Read more...]

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