Ask anyone how much time has elapsed since September last year and they’ll probably start counting on their fingers: “October, November…” and tell you “just over 9 months.” So, when faced as I was today with a data frame (named dates) like this: How to add a 7th column, with ... [Read more...]

Here is an interesting question from Tomàs that echoes a lot of related emails: I’m turning to you for advice. I’m facing problem  where parameter space is bounded, e.g. all parameters have to be positive. If in MCMC as proposal distribution I use normal distribution, then ... [Read more...]

Best graph ever. LARGEST EVER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 328 and 327 SPOTTED IN NEW YORK CITY [Read more...]

Winsorization replaces extreme data values with less extreme values. But why Extreme values sometimes have a big effect on statistical operations.  That effect is not necessarily a good effect.  One approach to the problem is to change the statistical operation — this is the field of robust statistics. An alternative solution ... [Read more...]

Yesterday the Princeton machine learning reading group went through a paper by Tukey on “Some graphic and semigraphic displays”. One issue we talked about at length was Tukey’s idiosyncratic approach to visualizing periodic data in a circular format to emphasize the connections between the “start” and the “end” of ... [Read more...]

Following my earlier posts on the revision of Lack of confidence, here is an interesting outcome from the derivation of the exact marginal likelihood in the Laplace case. Computing the posterior probability of a normal model versus a Laplace model in the normal (gold) and the Laplace (chocolate) settings leads ... [Read more...]

The French agronomy research institute INRA is organising a Fall school in La Rochelle, Nov. 28 – Dec. 02, on Bayesian methods, oriented towards the applications in food sciences, environmental sciences, and biology. The provisional program (in French) is ■ Initiation aux outils informatiques R et WinBUGS (TP et réalisation de projets sur ... [Read more...]

In conjunction with the normal-Laplace comparison mentioned in the most recent post about our lack of confidence in ABC model choice, we have been working on the derivation of the exact Bayes factor and I derived an easy formula for the marginal likelihood in the Laplace case that boils down ... [Read more...]

The news below was recently reported on the ProjectTemplate mailing list. For completeness, I’m also reporting it here. The first piece of ProjectTemplate news is that I won’t be the exclusive maintainer for ProjectTemplate anymore. Allen Goodman, who works at BankSimple, is now my co-maintainer and he has ... [Read more...]

Mark Girolami sent me this announcement for six PhD studentships in Statistical Methodology and Its Application at University College London (UCL) that are great opportunities for anyone interested in computational statistics! The studentships are attached to the Department of Statistical Science at University College London, and a subset of them ... [Read more...]

In a thoughtful blog post, Bioinformatician Ewan Birney (Head of Nucleotide Data at the European Bioinformatics Institute) talks about the importance of Statistics to biologists: Biology is really about stats. Indeed, the foundation of much of frequentist statistics - RA Fisher and colleagues - were totally motivated by biological problems. ... [Read more...]

The Parco Nazionale Gran Paradiso and the Università di Pavia are organising a summer school on “Advances in species distribution modelling in ecological studies and conservation” in Pavia and Cogne, 12-18 September 2011. This school includes R and Winbugs tutorials, regular classes, plus a field trip to the park, so this ... [Read more...]

Recently, I’ve been fitting some models from the behavioral economics literature to choice data. Most of these models amount to non-linear variants of logistic regression in which I want to infer the parameters of a utility function. Because several of these models aren’t widely used, I’ve had ... [Read more...]

Yesterday, Andrew Thomas and José Blanchet posted a note on the Bernouilli factory on arXiv. This short paper links with the recent paper of Flegal and Herbei I commented earlier. Considering the special target Thomas and Blanchet develop an elaborate scheme of cascading envelopes that converge to f from above. ... [Read more...]

Just got an email linking to Reproducible Research: A Range of Response, in the new journal Statistics, Politics, and Policy 2(1) by David Banks, who is also the journal's editor. Interestingly, the commentary doesn't mention the journal's policy (if one exists) on the reproducibility of research submitted there. Banks' writing is ... [Read more...]

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Following a link on R-bloggers, I ended up on this page (with a completely useless graph that only contained the pieces of information 5% in 1900 and 55% in 2000). The author (Ralph Keeney) reports on “A remarkable 55 percent of deaths for people age 15 to 64 can be attributed to decisions with readily [...] [Read more...]

In this, Chomsky is in complete agreement with O’Reilly. (I recognize that the previous sentence would have an extremely low probability in a probabilistic model trained on a newspaper or TV corpus.)1 Anyone who considers themself an intellectual should be required to read this new essay by Peter Norvig. ... [Read more...]

Through the webpage of the Advanced Monte Carlo Methods I & II, given a few years ago by Michael Mascagni at ETH Zürich, I found a link to the scanned version of the 1964 book Monte Carlo Methods by Hammersley and Handscomb. This is a short book, with less than 150 pages, ... [Read more...]

Last week I attended the OU Statistics conference on Visualisation and Presentation in Statistics (VIPS) (notes: here and here) One of the things that struck me from conversations and some of the presentations was that statistics – and in particular public engagement around statistics – appears to be lagging science efforts in ... [Read more...]