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As a matter of convention, we usually run 3 or 4 chains in JAGS. By default, this gives rise to chains that draw samples from 3 or 4 distinct pseudorandom number generators. I didn’t go and check whether it does things 111,222,333 or 123,123,123, but in any event the “parallel chains” in JAGS are samples [...] [Read more...]

Previously, I did a simple Bayesian projection of recent temperature using proxy data and the methods shown in McShane and Wyner (2010). I showed that when you take out the last 30 years of data (1969~1998), the projection does not track the recent uptick in temperatures well. The “projection” is a simple unparametric ... [Read more...]

Update: fixed projection. There are a bunch of “hockey sticks” that calculate past global temps. through the use of proxies when instrumental data is absent. There is a new one out there by McShane and Wyner (2010) that’s creating quite a stir in the blogosphere (here, here, here, here). The ... [Read more...]