In Recession Forecasting Part II, I compared the accuracy of Hussman's recession forecasts to the accuracy of a naive forecast that assumed the current state of the recession variable would continue next month. An anonymous comment...

In my last post on recessions, I implemented John Hussman's Recession Warning Composite in R. In this post I will examine how well this index performs and discuss how we might improve it. If you would like to follow along at home, be sure to run the ...