Earlier, I looked at the HadCRUT3vgl data set using generalized least squares to investigate whether the trend in temperature since 1995 was statistically significant. Here I want to follow-up one of the points from the earlier posting; namely using a … Continue reading → [Read more...]

Yesterday (June 11, 2011) the BBC reported on comments by Prof. Phil Jones, of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia (UEA), that the warming experienced by the planet since 1995 was statistically significant. That the trend in … Continue reading → [Read more...]

Previosly, I calculated a bunch of ad-hoc power curves from GISTEMP data. Power is essentially a reframing of the p-value, to see the significance of the trend lines in the global temps. However, power calculations are inherently very noisy, hence, my ad-hoc way of aggregating the data. Another method is ... [Read more...]

Previously, I did a simple Bayesian projection of recent temperature using proxy data and the methods shown in McShane and Wyner (2010). I showed that when you take out the last 30 years of data (1969~1998), the projection does not track the recent uptick in temperatures well. The “projection” is a simple unparametric ... [Read more...]

Previously, I plotted a grid of NASA GISS global temps in ggplot2 to show general trends by the brute force method. Here, I will again use the brute force method to do a simple power analysis on a portion of the data (data here). The general aim is to figure ... [Read more...]

I see many economy indicator graphs that show emphasis by shading in the curve under the area (while x-axis is time). The shade is stronger at higher values (example). I did this in R below (ggplot2). This was a little more difficult that I’d expected. The color gradients are ... [Read more...]

In a prior article, I tried to visualize the linear global temperatures trends for a grid of start and end years. The visual I created was confusing in that the specification of color scale was interdependent with the data values. I wanted a blue -__ white -__ red scale of ... [Read more...]

The relatively (to this decade) cool 2008 global temperatures spurred talks of a warming pause, or even global cooling. The claim usually comes from people who cherry picked either data sets and(!)/or start and end points of the global temperature trends to back up their allegation. The blogosphere already has ... [Read more...]

In the puzzle found in Le Monde of this weekend, the mathematical object behind the silly story is defined as a pseudo-Spearman rank correlation test statistic, where the difference between the ranks of the paired random variables and is in absolute value instead of being squared as in the Spearman ... [Read more...]