This is a talk I gave this week in Advanced Biostatistics at McGill. The goal was to provide an gentle introduction to Bayesian methodology and to demonstrate how it is used for inference and prediction. There is a link to an accompanying R script in the slides [Read more...]

INLA is not the Norwegian answer to ABBA; that would probably be a-ha. INLA is the answer to ‘Why do I have enough time to cook a three-course meal while running MCMC analyses?”. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) is based … Continue reading → [Read more...]

I list and discuss the three books on Bayesian analysis that I recommend to social scientists. [Read more...]

— “You are a pussy” emailed my friend. — “Sensu cat?” I replied. — “No. Sensu chicken” blurbed my now ex-friend. What was this about? He read my post on R, Julia and the shiny new thing, which prompted him … Continue reading → [Read more...]

Has Ireland gotten any warmer? Ask any punter on the street and they will happily inform you of wild swings, trends and dips. “Back when I was a child”, “when I was younger”, or “years ago” are the usual refrains. What’s the evidence? To answer this, I will use ... [Read more...]

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Monday, March 26, 2012  14h-16h, Stewart Biology N4/17 Corey Chivers, Department of Biology McGill University This is a meetup of the Montreal R User Group. Be sure to join the group and RSVP. More information about the workshop here. Topics Why would we want to be Bayesian in the first place?  ... [Read more...]

I was thinking about new material that I will use for teaching this coming semester (starting the third week of February) and suddenly compiled the following list of links: William Briggs writes It is time to stop teaching Frequentism to … Continue reading → [Read more...]

Around Christmas time I presented my first impressions of Kruschke’s Doing Bayesian Data Analysis. This is a very nice book but one of its drawbacks was that part of the code used BUGS, which left mac users like me stuck. … Continue reading → [Read more...]

About a month ago I was discussing the approach that I would like to see in introductory Bayesian statistics books. In that post I mentioned a PDF copy of Doing Bayesian Data Analysis by John K. Kruschke and that I … Continue reading → [Read more...]

This paper by Brad Efron came to my knowledge when I was looking for references on Bayesian bootstrap to answer a Cross Validated question. After reading it more thoroughly, “Bayesian inference and the parametric bootstrap” puzzles me, which most certainly means I have missed the main point. Indeed, the paper ... [Read more...]

After attending two one-day workshops last week I spent most days paying attention to (well, at least listening to) presentations in this biostatistics conference. Most presenters were R users—although Genstat, Matlab and SAS fans were also present and not one … Continue reading → [Read more...]

This post is somewhat marginal to R in that there are several statistical systems that could be used to tackle the problem. Bayesian statistics is one of those topics that I would like to understand better, much better, in fact. … Continue reading → [Read more...]

The below is taken from a work in progress: The Polya urn is a heuristic associated with Dirichlet process mixtures. We present the scheme in a modified format, using balloons instead of balls, where the probability of drawing a balloon from the urn is proportional to its volume. Balloons are ... [Read more...]

I don't know, of course, because the evidence at hand is based on my experience. But, I'll leave the reader to consider whether these observations generalize. Proponents of Bayesian statistical inference argue that Bayesian credible intervals are more intuitive than the frequentist confidence intervals, because the Bayesian inference is a ... [Read more...]

A few years ago we had this really cool idea: we had to establish a trial to understand wood quality in context. Sort of following the saying “we don’t know who discovered water, but we are sure that it wasn’t … Continue reading → [Read more...]

This week I’m facing my—and many other lecturers’—least favorite part of teaching: grading exams. In a supreme act of procrastination I will continue the previous post, and the antepenultimate one, showing the code for a bivariate analysis of a randomized … Continue reading → [Read more...]

Bill Bolstad's response to Xi'an's review of his book Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics included the following comment, which I found interesting: Frequentist p-values are constructed in the parameter dimension using a probability distribution defined only in the observation dimension. Bayesian credible intervals are constructed in the parameter dimension using a ... [Read more...]

Here are the 14 slides I used during my talk at the Joint Statistical Meetings 2011: shotwell-jsm-2011.pdf. I'm trying hard to minimize the text in my presentation slides. But, this usually requires that I practice more. Hence, you will know which talks I have practiced thoroughly by the amount of text ... [Read more...]

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