I did some poking and prodding of the polling place data, looking at the way Green support is highly concentrated in the inner-capital cities (and in Melbourne and Sydney, in particular). There are a few interesting exceptions that will make sense to... [Read more...]

The AEC makes this reasonably easy, as do the authors of some very helpful R packages, the good people at Google Maps etc. Full description here (PDF); entire collection here; a sample here, showing Green 1st preferences, by polling places across metro... [Read more...]

We’re starting to get more divisions reporting two-candidate preferred numbers by vote type. The emerging picture (literally) is one in which Labor’s performance on the pre-polls and postals is lagging its performance in ordinary votes. On the other hand, Labor seems to be doing well among absentee voters (... [Read more...]

For the last two cycles I’ve done some simple regression analysis of the informal vote.  I saw Possum have his go at it, using a specification that is virtually the same as what I’ve run in the past (2007, 2004). The 2010 edition follows.  As usual, electorate-level informality in House of ... [Read more...]

I’m updating a swing dotplot PDF every 10 minutes as the count progresses (and the cool part is that the updates continue even as I’m flying Heathrow to SFO). [Read more...]

By popular demand (!), my state-by-state pendulum (pendula?) for 2010 is up (big PDF), just in time for the election.  550px wide JPG version is inline, below. This follows the same formatting I used in the 2007 edition. We start with the 2PP ALP vote shares recorded at the last election (incorporating changes ... [Read more...]