Thanks to a link on R-bloggers, I was introduced to Luis Apiolaza’s blog, Quantum Forest, which covers data analyses and R comments he encounters in his research as a quantitative forester/geneticist. And he works at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch, where I first taught from Bayesian Core in 2006. ... [Read more...]

Having (rather foolishly) involved myself into providing an answer for Cross Validated: “Can the standard deviation of non-negative data exceed the mean?“, I ended up having to derive the mean of the absolute value of a Student’s variate X.  (Well, not really, but then I did.) I think the ... [Read more...]

A few days ago, one of my students, Jacopo Primavera (from La Sapienza, Roma) presented his “reading the classic” paper, namely the terrific bounded normal mean paper by my friends George Casella and Bill Strawderman (1981, Annals of Statistics). Even though I knew this paper quite well, having read (and studied) ... [Read more...]

Matthew Hoffman and Andrew Gelman have posted a paper on arXiv entitled “The No-U-Turn Sampler: Adaptively Setting Path Lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo” and developing an improvement on the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm called NUTS (!). Here is the abstract: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ... [Read more...]

Filed under: pictures, R Tagged: Le Monde, mathematical puzzle, R [Read more...]

Erkan Buzbas sent me an email about his webpage (operated as a wordpress blog) on ABC. It contains different items of information on ABC research and an hopefully growing list of references. After Scott Sisson’s tweet on ABC_research (latest news: two ABC sessions in ISBA 20122, Kyoto),  here comes ... [Read more...]

Yes, yet another Bayesian textbook: Ioannis Ntzoufras’ Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS was published in 2009 and it got an honourable mention at the 2009 PROSE Award. (Nice acronym for a book award! All the mathematics books awarded that year were actually statistics books.) Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS is rather similar to the ... [Read more...]

As supplementary material to the ABC paper we just arXived, here is the R code I used to produce the Bayes factor comparisons between summary statistics in the normal versus Laplace example. (Warning: running the R code takes a while!) Filed under: R, Statistics, University life Tagged: ABC, Bayesian model ... [Read more...]

Here is [yet!] another Bayesian textbook that appeared recently. I read it in the past few days and, despite my obvious biases and prejudices, I liked it very much! It has a lot in common (at least in spirit) with our Bayesian Core, which may explain why I feel so ... [Read more...]

I just got the “news” that Dennis Ritchie died, although this happened on October 12… The announcement was surprisingly missing from my information channels and certainly got little media coverage, compared with Steve Jobs‘ demise. (I did miss the obituaries in the New York Times and in the Guardian. The Economist ... [Read more...]

Here is our discussion (with Nicolas Chopin) of the Read Paper of last Wednesday by T. van Erven, P. Grünwald and S. de Rooij (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica, Amsterdam), entitled Catching up faster by switching sooner: a predictive approach to adaptive estimation with an application to the Akaike ... [Read more...]

Fig. 4 – Boxplots of the evolution [against ε] of ABC approximations to the Bayes factor. The representation is made in terms of frequencies of visits to [accepted proposals from] models MA(1) and MA(2) during an ABC simulation when ε corresponds to the 10,1,.1,.01% quantiles on the simulated autocovariance distances. The data is a time [...] [Read more...]

Bill Bolstad wrote a reply to my review of his book Understanding computational Bayesian statistics last week and here it is, unedited except for the first paragraph where he thanks me for the opportunity to respond, “so readers will see that the book has some good features beyond having a “... [Read more...]

The puzzle in Le Monde this weekend is not that clear (for a change!), so I may be confused in the following exposition: Three card players are betting with a certain (and different) number of chips each, between 4 and 9. After each game, the looser doubles the number of chips of ... [Read more...]

There is a call for postdoctoral positions supported by the Paris Mathematical Sciences Foundation. The deadline is December 13 and the on-line application is available. If you are interested in working with me on Bayesian statistics  (model choice, time series model) or computational methods (SMC, MCMC, ABC, &c.) thru this call, ... [Read more...]

Pierre Jacob and Robin Ryder (from Paris-Dauphine, CREST, and Statisfaction) have just arXived (and submitted to the Annals of Applied Probability) a neat result on the Wang-Landau algorithm. (This algorithm, which modifies the target in a sort of reweighted partioned sampling to achieve faster convergence, has always been perplexing to ... [Read more...]

During a short if profitable visit to Dublin for a SFI meeting on Tuesday/Friday, I had the opportunity to visit the National Gallery of Ireland in my sole hour of free time (as my classy hotel was very close). The building itself is quite nice, being well-inserted between brick ... [Read more...]

“Bayes Theorem is a simple consequence of the axioms of probability, and is therefore accepted by all as valid. However, some who challenge the use of personal probability reject certain applications of Bayes Theorem.“  J. Kadane, p.44 Principles of uncertainty by Joseph (“Jay”) Kadane (Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh) is a ... [Read more...]

The two translators of our book in Japanese, Kazue & Motohiro Ishida, contacted me about some R code mistakes in the book. The translation is nearly done and they checked every piece of code in the book, an endeavour for which I am very grateful! Here are the two issues they ... [Read more...]

As Le Monde weekend has yet again changed its format (with so much more advertisements for luxurious items that I sometimes wonder whether or not this is the weekend edition of Le Monde!], it took me a while to locate the mathematical puzzle. The good news is there now is ... [Read more...]