It is winter which makes it time for one of Netherlands beloved sports: speed skating. Speed skating is done over various distances, but for me, the most beautiful is the 10 km. The top men do this in about 13 minutes. In this post I try to u... [Read more...]

The Wheel of Time is a series of books started by Robert Jordan. Unfortunately he died too early. Like all fans of the series I feel very lucky that Brandon Sanderson was able to continue these books. The first book Sanderson wrote was the Gathering St... [Read more...]

The Eye of the World is the first book of Robert Jordan's Wheel of Time books. As the last of these books will be published soon, I was wondering if natural language processing can be used to examine books like these. For this purpose I downloaded a co... [Read more...]

I read the post The surprisingly weak case for global warming and the rejection; Climate: Misspecified. Based on the first, I wanted to make a post, just to write I agree with the second.The post features a number of plots like thisFor m... [Read more...]

IntroductionA triangle test is a test beloved by sensory scientists for its simplicity and general use in detecting presence of product differences. The principle is simple. Test subjects get served three samples. One of these contains A, two of these ... [Read more...]

Last week I wrote:This is actually a more difficult calculation (or I forgot too much probability). Luckily a bit of brute force comes in handy. To reiterate, in general simulated data shows 0.54 redraws because of the first person etc.colSums(countsto... [Read more...]

Based on comments by cellocgw I decided to look at last week's Secret Santa again. This time, the moment a person, whoever that is, draws his/her own name, the drawing starts again at the first person.IntroductionA group of n persons draws sequentially... [Read more...]

On reddit somebody asked For n individuals, what's the probability that the last person to pick during a round of Secret Santa name picking, will pick their own name.. "With each person picking in turn, and re-picking if they pick out th... [Read more...]

For now this is the last post about these football data. It started in August, by now it is November. But just to finish up; the model as it should have been last week.ModelAs most of what I did is described last week, only the model as it went ... [Read more...]

In the football data there was some reason to use a mixed distribution in the football data (ref) so I tried doing that. It was more difficult than I expected. Not only is a mixture of distributions fairly difficult, also the system was over parameteri... [Read more...]

In this post the football model is programmed into JAGS. There are all the reasons to do so. Jags 3.3 is recently released, I was stimulated by Gianluca's post . Obviously I could copy the model in his paper, but that would be too easy a... [Read more...]

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