14 October 1943 -  291 US Army Air Force (USAAF) heavy bombers took off from England to attack a Ball Bearing factory in the heart of Germany. The goal was to destroy the Nazi war machine’s fighting ability and means of war production. As the bomb...

14 October 1943 -  291 US Army Air Force (USAAF) heavy bombers took off from England to attack a Ball Bearing factory in the heart of Germany. The goal was to destroy the Nazi war machine’s fighting ability and means of war production. As the bomb...

If you're like me you've been looking at FiveThirtyEight and PredictIt election probabilities multiple times a day. Recently I've been focusing on some interesting disagreements in electoral outcomes at the state level.  For instanc...

If you're like me you've been looking at FiveThirtyEight and PredictIt election probabilities multiple times a day. Recently I've been focusing on some interesting disagreements in electoral outcomes at the state level.  For instanc...

This post will go over a python package called mr_uplift (Multiple Responses Uplift) in R using the reticulate package. In it I set up a hypothetical problem using the GOTV dataset where we are interested in increasing voting while being mindful of some assumed costs. Introduction Uplift models (or ...

This post will go over a python package called mr_uplift (Multiple Responses Uplift) in R using the reticulate package. In it I set up a hypothetical problem using the GOTV dataset where we are interested in increasing voting while being mindful of som...

Getting correct data on covid-19 cases is important to obtain up-to-date information on how the disease is progressing. It's also necessary create models and make accurate forecasts.  However, I'm starting to think most of the charts we see for covid cases over time are incorrect. The reason is these datasets ...

Getting correct data on covid-19 cases is important to obtain up-to-date information on how the disease is progressing. It's also necessary create models and make accurate forecasts. However, I'm starting to think most of the charts we see for cov...

TLDR: I've found an association between number of people that tested positive for COVID-19 in a country and imports from China. In addition there are particular industries that are particularly correlated with COVID-19 rates. Iran is still an outlier taking this information into account.  Intro: Coronavirus (COVID-19) rates of infection ...

The Internet Research Agency (IRA), funded by friends of Russian Intelligence, used social media to try to influence the US 2016 election. They did so in an elaborate and systematic fashion. While the number of purchased ads and money spent on Facebook was small there were significant resources devoted to this ...

The Internet Research Agency (IRA), funded by friends of Russian Intelligence, used social media to try to influence the US 2016 election. They did so in an elaborate and systematic fashion. While the number of purchased ads and money spent on Facebook...

Introduction:On August 2, 2016 then Trump campaign manager, Paul Manafort, gave polling data to Konstantin Kalimnik a Russian widely assumed to be a spy. Before then Manafort ordered his protege, Rick Gates, to share polling data with Kilmnik. Gates periodically did so starting April or May. The Mueller Report stated it ...

settle down and have another cup of coffee code TLDR There are a lot of Russian’s talking to a lot of Trump campaign members in Mueller report. There are so many it’s tough to get your head around it all. In this post I attempted some network analysis ...