What if you’re playing make-it-take-it? Summary Taking action Other considerations Appendix But you don’t play pickup basketball to infinity Finite geometric series Scoring system in pickup basketball TLDR: For full court pickup basketball you should play by 2s and 3s. Make-it-take-it by 1s and 2s is also fine. ...

When odds are helpful Ratio of odds (odds ratio) Communicating odds Appendix Ratios and fractions of events Many variables Other problems We grow up learning proportions, percentages, risks, probabilities. You encounter them when a teacher gives a grade on a test or a doctor describes the risk of an illness. ...

NBA Playoffs and the Lakers Data Prep Scraping Betting Markets Steps Joining with FiveThirtyEight data Analysis How much does FiveThirtyEight differ from markets? Closing Thought Appendix Potential Reasons for the Difference Calculating percentiles of diff TLDR: FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts of NBA playoff berths seem to hold-up OK against betting markets. ...

Macro in the Shell Example Setting-up Gaurd Rails Closing Appendix Related Alternative Other Resources There is many a data science meme degrading excel: (Google Sheets seems to have escaped most of the memes here.) While I no longer use ...

Quantile Regression Example Quantile Regression Forest Review Performance Coverage Interval Width Closing Notes Appendix Residual Plots Other Charts In this post I will build prediction intervals using quantile regression, more specifically, quantile regression forests. This is my third post on prediction intervals. Prior posts: Understanding Prediction Intervals (Part 1) Simulating Prediction ...

Rough Idea Inspiration Procedure Example Simulate Prediction Interval Review Interval Width Coverage Closing Notes Appendix Conformal Inference Other Examples Using Simulation Confusion With Confidence Intervals Adjusting Procedure Alternative Procedure With CV Part 1 of my series of posts on building prediction intervals used data held-out from model training to evaluate the ...

Providing More Than Point Estimates Considering Uncertainty Observation Specific Intervals A Few Things to Know About Prediction Intervals Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals Analytic Method of Calculating Prediction Intervals Visual Comparison of Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals Inference or Prediction? Cautions With Overfitting Generalizability Review Prediction Intervals Coverage Interval Width ...

Model Performance Metrics Lending Data Example Starter Code Weighting by Classification Outcomes Metrics Across Decision Thresholds Weighting by Observations Closing note Appendix Weights of Observations During and Prior to Modeling Notes on Cost Sensitive Classification Weighted Classification Metrics Questions on Cost Sensitive Classification Arriving at Weights Weighting in predictive modeling ...

Model Performance Metrics Lending Data Example Starter Code Weighting by Classification Outcomes Metrics Across Decision Thresholds Weighting by Observations Closing note Appendix Weights of Observations During and Prior to Modeling Notes on Cost Sensitive Classification Weighted Classification Metrics Questions on Cost Sensitive Classification Arriving at Weights Weighting in predictive modeling ...

Create Data Association of ‘feature’ and ‘target’ Resample Build Models Rescale Predictions to Predicted Probabilities Appendix Density Plots Lift Plot Comparing Scaling Methods TLDR: In classification problems, under and over sampling1 techniques shift the distribution of predicted probabilities towards the minority class. If your problem requires accurate probabilities you will ...

Create Data Association of ‘feature’ and ‘target’ Resample Build Models Rescale Predictions to Predicted Probabilities Appendix Density Plots Lift Plot TLDR: In classification problems, under and over sampling1 techniques shift the distribution of predicted probabilities towards the minority class. If your problem requires accurate probabilities you will need to adjust ...

Simple Example Applying Incentives Takeaways of Resulting Distribution Think Carefully About Assumptions How to Set Assumptions Appendix Simple Assumptions Trade-offs In this post I will use incentives for sales representatives in pricing to provide examples of factors to consider when attempting to influence an existing distribution. For instance, if you ...

Load data Feature Engineering & Data Splits Lag Based Features (Before Split, use dplyr or similar) Data Splits Other Features (After Split, use recipes) Model Specification and Training Model Evaluation Appendix Model Building with Hyperparam...