On Sunday the Tokyo Olympics men sprint 100m final will take place. Francesc Montané reminded me in his analysis that 9 years ago I used a simple regression model to predict the winning time for the 100m men sprint final of the 2012 Olympics in Lon...

Finally, the Insurance Data Science conference was back last week. After last year’s cancellation due to Covid-19 over 250, delegates from around the world came together on-line for the third instalment of the conference. The event kicked-off, or shou...

The programme and abstract booklet for the 2021 Insurance Data Science (16 - 18 June) conference (fka R in Insurance) is now out! We are very excited for a great range of speakers and topics. Previous Next     Page: / Download the Programme and Abstract Booklet Book your ticket for this three half day event ...

This article illustrates how ordinary differential equations and multivariate observations can be modelled and fitted with the brms package (Bürkner (2017)) in R1. As an example I will use the well known Lotka-Volterra model (Lotka (1925), Volterra...

At the Insurance Data Science conference, both Eric Novik and Paul-Christian Bürkner emphasised in their talks the value of thinking about the data generating process when building Bayesian statistical models. It is also a key step in Michael Betancourt’s Principled Bayesian Workflow. In this post, I will discuss ...

The first Insurance Data Science event was held at Cass Business School last week, 16 - 17 July 2018. The conference followed on from five iterations of the R in Insurance events, which have the aim of bringing together practitioners and academics together to discuss and exchange ideas and needs in the sector. ...

How do you build a model from first principles? Here is a step by step guide. Following on from last week’s post on Principled Bayesian Workflow I want to reflect on how to motivate a model. The purpose of most models is to understand change, and yet, considering what ...

Insurance Data Science The abstract submission deadline for the Insurance Data Science conference at Cass Business School on 16 July 2018 is closing soon. You have until the 9th of April to submit your abstract. Please send your abstract to info@...

This is a follow-up post on hierarchical compartmental reserving models using PK/PD models. It will show how differential equations can be used with Stan/ brms and how correlation for the same group level terms can be modelled. PK/ PD is usually short for pharmacokinetic/ pharmacodynamic models, but as Eric ...