Table of Contents Introduction Setup One group Two groups: single set of weights Two groups: separate spline bases and per-group weights Two groups: single spline basis and per-group weights Two groups: per-group weights with hierarchical prior One group: multivariate-normal prior on weights Two group: multivariate normal prior on weights Session ...

Introduction PyMC3 is a Python-based probabilistic programming language used to fit Bayesian models with a variety of cutting-edge algorithms including NUTS MCMC1 and ADVI2. It is not uncommon for PyMC3 users to receive the following warning: WARNING ...

In chapter 17 “Parametric nonlinear models” of Bayesian Data Analysis1 by Gelman et al., the authors present an example of fitting a curve to a serial dilution standard curve and using it to estimate unknown concentrations. Below, I build t...

Introduction I found that I was constantly referring to the IPython documentation to look up the code for the autoreload magic command and wished there was an easy place for me to keep and access these sort of “oft-copied” texts. I realized...

Below, I describe how to type hint some of the dunder methods of a subclass of the built-in Python list. I begin by describing why I wanted to do this in the first place, then, with the aim of being somewhat pedagogical, how I figured out what to do be...

Here, I lay out step-by-step instructions for getting a Appwrite backend up and running on DigitalOcean. First, however, I briefly describe what Appwrite and DigitalOcean are and why one would want to use either of these services. For those who are jus...

Background In his post on hierarchical models, Michael Betancourt goes in-depth on the funnel pathologies that often plague hierarchical modeling. My goal here is to reproduce his analysis in PyMC3 and explore these problems and their solutions. A hierarchical model is one that simultaneously models data from individual distributions and ...

This is just a simple post about the tooling for a small project I just wrapped up. For this project, I conducted a Bayesian data analysis and published the analysis to GitHub as a static website. The data analysis portion relied heavily upon the &lsqu...

This post is to primarily serve as a repository for my notes on the Explore logging in Swift video originally presented at WWDC 2020. It provides a general overview of how to use the logging system, then touches on a few specific features to keep in mi...

This tutorial is meant to act as a guide for deploying Streamlit applications on Heroku using Docker and GitHub Actions. As a data scientist, Streamlit offers the simplest route from analysis to application by providing an API to create an interactive ...

Introduction Often, the model we want to fit is not a perfect line between some $x$ and $y$. Instead, the parameters of the model are expected to vary over $x$. There are multiple ways to handle this situation, one of which is to fit a spline. The spli...

DeepAI is a research company that develops a wide variety of deep neural network (DNN) models using the bleeding edge of AI research. For example, they have built models for sentiment analysis of text, nudity detection, artistic style transfer, text s...

FiveThirtyEight’s Riddler Express link From Taylor Firman comes an opportunity to make baseball history: This year, Major League Baseball announced it will play a shortened 60-game season, as opposed to the typical 162-game season. Baseball is a sport of numbers and statistics, and so Taylor wondered about the impact ...

The other day, Dr. Silge from RStudio posted the screencast and blog post of her #TidyTuesday analysis of the Uncanny X-Men data set from Claremont Run Project. In her analysis, she used logistic regression to model the effect of various features of each comic book issue on the likelihood of ...

FiveThirtyEight’s Riddler Express link In Riddler City, the city streets follow a grid layout, running north-south and east-west. You’re driving north when you decide to play a little game. Every time you reach an intersection, you randomly turn left or right, each with a 50 percent chance. After driving ...

FiveThirtyEight’s Riddler Express link From Tom Hanrahan, a maze you can solve without getting lost in a field of corn: The number in each box tells you how many spaces up, down, left or right you must move. (No diagonal moves, people.) Starting at the yellow six in the ...

FiveThirtyEight’s Riddler Classic link After a long night of frivolous quackery, two delirious ducks are having a difficult time finding each other in their pond. The pond happens to contain a 3×3 grid of rocks. Every minute, each duck randomly swims, independently of the other duck, from one rock to ...

FiveThirtyEight’s Riddler Express link Riddler City is a large circular metropolis, with countless square city blocks that each have a side length of 1 km. A small section of the city, composed of 36 blocks, is shown in the diagram below: At the very center of the city lies Riddler City ...