Articles by arthur charpentier

Classification from scratch, SVM 7/8

June 6, 2018 | arthur charpentier

Seventh post of our series on classification from scratch. The latest one was on the neural nets, and today, we will discuss SVM, support vector machines. A formal introduction Here takes values in . Our model will be Thus, the space is divided by a (linear) border The distance from point ...
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Classification from scratch, neural nets 6/8

June 5, 2018 | arthur charpentier

Sixth post of our series on classification from scratch. The latest one was on the lasso regression, which was still based on a logistic regression model, assuming that the variable of interest has a Bernoulli distribution. From now on, we will discuss technique that did not originate from those probabilistic ...
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Classification from scratch, logistic with kernels 3/8

May 31, 2018 | arthur charpentier

Third post of our series on classification from scratch, following the previous post introducing smoothing techniques, with (b)-splines. Consider here kernel based techniques. Note that here, we do not use the “logistic” model… it is purely non-parametric. kernel based estimated, from scratch I like kernels because they are somehow ...
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Classification from scratch, trees 9/8

May 30, 2018 | arthur charpentier

Nineth post of our series on classification from scratch. Today, we’ll see the heuristics of the algorithm inside classification trees. And yes, I promised eight posts in that series, but clearly, that was not sufficient… sorry for the poor prediction. Decision Tree Decision trees are easy to read. So ...
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Classification from scratch, logistic with splines 2/8

May 30, 2018 | arthur charpentier

Today, second post of our series on classification from scratch, following the brief introduction on the logistic regression. Piecewise linear splines To illustrate what’s going on, let us start with a “simple” regression (with only one explanatory variable). The underlying idea is natura non facit saltus, for “nature does ...
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Classification from scratch, overview 0/8

May 29, 2018 | arthur charpentier

Before my course on « big data and economics » at the university of Barcelona in July, I wanted to upload a series of posts on classification techniques, to get an insight on machine learning tools. According to some common idea, machine learning algorithms are black boxes. I wanted to get back ...
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Using convolutions (S3) vs distributions (S4)

January 24, 2018 | arthur charpentier

Usually, to illustrate the difference between S3 and S4 classes in R, I mention glm (from base) and vglm (from VGAM) that provide similar outputs, but one is based on S3 codes, while the second one is based on S4 codes. Another way to illustrate is to manipulate distributions. Consider ...
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Holt-Winters with a Quantile Loss Function

January 8, 2018 | arthur charpentier

Exponential Smoothing is an old technique, but it can perform extremely well on real time series, as discussed in Hyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (2008)), when Gardner (2005) appeared, many believed that exponential smoothing should be disregarded because it was either a special case of ARIMA modeling or an ad hoc procedure with ... [Read more...]

The myth of interpretability of econometric models

December 8, 2017 | arthur charpentier

There are important discussions nowadays about data modeling, to choose between the “two cultures” (as mentioned in Breiman (2001)), i.e. either econometrics models or machine/statistical learning models. We did discuss this issue recently in Econométrie et Machine Learning (so far only in French) with Emmanuel Flachaire and Antoine ...
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Traveling Salesman

September 26, 2017 | arthur charpentier

In the second part of the course on graphs and networks, we will focus on economic applications, and flows. The first series of slides are on the traveling salesman problem. Slides are available online. [Read more...]

Matching, Optimal Transport and Statistical Tests

July 30, 2017 | arthur charpentier

To explain the “optimal transport” problem, we usually start with Gaspard Monge’s “Mémoire sur la théorie des déblais et des remblais“, where the the problem of transporting a given distribution of matter (a pile of sand for instance) into another (an excavation for instance). This problem ...
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The U.S. Has Been At War 222 Out of 239 Years

March 19, 2017 | arthur charpentier

This morning, I discovered an interesting statistic, America Has Been At War 93% of the Time – 222 Out of 239 Years – Since 1776,  i.e. the U.S. has only been at peace for less than 20 years total since its birth. I wanted to check, get a better understanding and look at other countries ...
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