War is over (if you want it?)
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People’s feelings about the Christmas season span a wide range, from very positive to very negative. As for where I fall, well:
Code
library(tidyverse)
library(ggplot2)
library(lubridate)
df <- here::here("datasets", "ucdp-prio-acd-221.csv") %>%
read_csv() %>%
select(conflict_id, location, year, type_of_conflict, region, ep_end_date, region) %>%
mutate(
type_of_conflict = factor(type_of_conflict),
xmas = as.Date(paste0(year, "-12-25")),
count = ifelse(!(ep_end_date > xmas), 0, 1)
) %>%
replace_na(list(count = 1))
conflicts <- df %>%
group_by(year, type_of_conflict) %>%
summarize(count = sum(count)) %>%
ungroup()
ggplot(conflicts, aes(x = year, y = count, fill = type_of_conflict)) +
geom_bar(stat = "identity", position = "stack", width = .7) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linewidth = .25, color = "black") +
labs(
title = "Another year over",
subtitle = "Active armed conflicts as of Christmas Day, 1946-2021",
caption = "Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v.22.1"
) +
scale_fill_manual(
name = "Type of conflict",
labels = c("Extrasystemtic", "Interstate", "Intrastate", "Internationalized intrastate"),
values = rev(c("#1046b1", "#c52e9b", "#ff505b", "#ffa600"))
) +
theme_minimal(base_family = "karla") +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(size = 16, face = "bold", hjust = .5),
plot.subtitle = element_text(size = 14, hjust = .5, margin = margin(b = 15)),
plot.caption = element_text(size = 8, hjust = 0, margin = margin(t = 10)),
axis.ticks = element_blank(),
axis.title = element_blank(),
axis.text.x = element_text(size = 12, margin = margin(t = 5)),
axis.text.y = element_text(size = 12, margin = margin(r = 5)),
legend.position = "bottom",
legend.title = element_text(size = 11, face = "bold", margin = margin(r = 10)),
legend.text = element_text(size = 11),
legend.key.size = unit(.4, "lines"),
panel.background = element_rect(fill = "gray97", color = NA),
panel.grid.major.x = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "white"),
panel.grid.minor.x = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor.y = element_blank()
)
The data is from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset. I’ll go through how I constructed the above chart.
First, some words about the dataset. Each observation is a conflict-year. A conflict is dated from its first battle-related death, but only active “episodes” — defined as 25 battle-related deaths — are recorded in the database. For example, the Basque conflict has the following entries:
here::here("datasets", "ucdp-prio-acd-221.csv") %>%
read_csv() %>%
select(conflict_id, side_a, side_b, year, start_date, start_date2, ep_end_date) %>%
filter(conflict_id == "342") %>%
knitr::kable(align = "c")
| conflict_id | side_a | side_b | year | start_date | start_date2 | ep_end_date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 342 | Government of Spain | ETA | 1978 | 1968-06-07 | 1978-10-22 | NA |
| 342 | Government of Spain | ETA | 1979 | 1968-06-07 | 1978-10-22 | NA |
| 342 | Government of Spain | ETA | 1980 | 1968-06-07 | 1978-10-22 | NA |
| 342 | Government of Spain | ETA | 1981 | 1968-06-07 | 1978-10-22 | NA |
| 342 | Government of Spain | ETA | 1982 | 1968-06-07 | 1978-10-22 | 1982-12-29 |
| 342 | Government of Spain | ETA | 1985 | 1968-06-07 | 1985-12-23 | NA |
| 342 | Government of Spain | ETA | 1986 | 1968-06-07 | 1985-12-23 | NA |
| 342 | Government of Spain | ETA | 1987 | 1968-06-07 | 1985-12-23 | 1987-12-31 |
| 342 | Government of Spain | ETA | 1991 | 1968-06-07 | 1991-06-28 | 1991-12-13 |
While it is recorded as starting on 7 June 1968, its first active episode started on 22 October 1978 and lasted until 29 December 1982. A second episode occurred from 23 December 1985 to 31 December 1987, then a third from 28 June to 13 December 1991. For my purposes, this would count as an active conflict for the Christmas Days of 1978-1982 and 1985-1987. Not 1991 however, since that episode ended right before Christmas.
For each conflict-year, I therefore need to construct a dummy to indicate whether it is a Christmas conflict or not. I do it in three steps. First, I construct the variable xmas to set the Christmas Day for each year. Second, I set the variable count to 0 if the conflict-year’s ep_end_date occurs before Christmas. Finally, for all cases where ep_end_date is NA, I set count to 1.
df <- here::here("datasets", "ucdp-prio-acd-221.csv") %>%
read_csv() %>%
mutate(
xmas = as.Date(paste0(year, "-12-25")),
count = ifelse(!(ep_end_date > xmas), 0, 1)
) %>%
replace_na(list(count = 1))
Then it’s a simple matter of counting the active conflicts per year and constructing a bar chart. to illustrate the depressing fact that Christmas 2021 saw an all-time high in active conflicts worldwide.
To end, here’s the song that inspired this post. Have a bad Christmas season everybody.
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