Using data to accurately forecast demand for chocolate this Easter

Easter is a significant holiday for many businesses especially within the UK. The holiday period brings an increase to food and drink sales, with Easter being the second most popular period of the year for chocolate consumption. Many Britons book holiday trips in this period as well, making it an important time for the leisure industry.

Data science enables businesses to effectively plan for this busy period. Analysis of historical sales data can be used to predict future demand, allowing businesses to accurately plan stock levels; real-time analysis provides visibility of the state of a product, enabling businesses to quickly resolve issues regarding the manufacturing of products like chocolate bunnies.

Accurate forecasting to match demand

Demand forecasting is a commonly used approach which allows businesses to effectively predict future sales, plan and schedule production, improve budget planning, and develop efficient pricing strategies. Predictive analysis is used to understand and forecast demand over time, helping businesses make well-informed decisions.

Adapting in line with the coronavirus pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought great challenges within businesses. Easter brings challenges itself with the date of the holiday moving each year, however in 2020, businesses were simply not prepared for the impact of the pandemic. Easter egg sales fell by £36 million with many retailers having to sell lots of eggs at discounted prices. Some retailers were also unprepared for the boom in online sales and were not able to meet demand. On the upside, many businesses are better prepared for this year’s Easter period, with many focussing on online operations. Through demand forecasting techniques and last year’s data, businesses have been able to better prepare for this year’s demand. Many, for example Hotel Chocolat, are offering a limited range of Easter eggs this year.

As well as benefitting the retail and leisure industries, demand forecasting is used by other organisations over Easter. The NHS use forecasting techniques to predict demand and capacity for their services. This has been particularly important during the pandemic. In the January peak, NHS hospitals were caring for over 34,000 COVID-19 patients in England, approximately 80% higher than the first peak in 2020. Demand forecasting and mathematical models are being used to predict hospital bed demands frequently, tailored to specific hospitals, to help the NHS and government plan for future holiday periods such as Easter.

Demand forecasting is an effective approach that is being used by many businesses to plan for this year’s Easter holiday. Data-driven businesses can make well-informed decisions for the future, and as a result many will be better prepared this Easter.

Can we help with any aspect of your demand forecasting? Read our case study to find out how we have helped other companies with this.

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