Bayesian statistics: A tutorial taught at Experimental Methods for Language Acquisition research (EMLAR XVII 2021)

Bayesian statistics Taught by Shravan Vasishth (vasishth.github.io) When: Sometime between 13 and 15 April 2021 Where: https://emlar.wp.hum.uu.nl/tutorial/bayesian-statistics/ Bayesian methods are increasingly becoming mainstream in psychology and psycholinguistics. However, finding an entry point into using these methods is often difficult for researchers. In this tutorial, I will provide an informal introduction to the fundamental ideas behind Bayesian statistics, using examples illustrating applications to psycholinguistics. I will also illustrate some of the advantages of the Bayesian approach over the standardly used frequentist paradigms: uncertainty quantification, robust estimates, the ability to incorporate expert and/or prior knowledge into the data analysis, and the ability to flexibly define the generative process and thereby to directly address the actual research question (as opposed to a straw-man null hypothesis). Suggestions for further readings will be provided. References Bruno Nicenboim, Daniel Schad, and Shravan Vasishth. Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis for Cognitive Science. 2021. Under contract with Chapman and Hall/CRC Statistics in the Social and Behavioral Sciences Series. https://vasishth.github.io/bayescogsci/ Daniel J. Schad, Michael Betancourt, and Shravan Vasishth. Towards a principled Bayesian workflow: A tutorial for cognitive science. Psychological Methods, 2020. In Press. https://osf.io/b2vx9/ Shravan Vasishth, Daniela Mertzen, Lena A. Jäger, and Andrew Gelman. The statistical significance filter leads to overoptimistic expectations of replicability. Journal of Memory and Language, 103:151-175, 2018. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0749596X18300640?via%3Dihub Shravan Vasishth, Bruno Nicenboim, Mary E. Beckman, Fangfang Li, and Eun Jong Kong. Bayesian data analysis in the phonetic sciences: A tutorial introduction. Journal of Phonetics, 71:141-161, 2018. https://osf.io/g4zpv/ Bruno Nicenboim and Shravan Vasishth. Statistical methods for linguistic research: Foundational Ideas – Part II. Language and Linguistics Compass, 10:591-613, 2016. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/lnc3.12207