Non-Gaussian forecasting using fable

Forecasting with transformations

Clearly the variance is increasing with the level of the series, so we will consider modelling a Box-Cox transformation of the data.

vic_cafe %>% autoplot(box_cox(Turnover, lambda = 0.2))

The variance now looks more homogeneous across the series, allowing us to fit an additive model. I chose the value of \(\lambda=0.2\) by eye, but you can use the guerrero function for an automated approach.

vic_cafe %>% features(Turnover, guerrero)
## # A tibble: 1 x 1
##   lambda_guerrero
##             <dbl>
## 1           0.124

It suggests something slightly smaller, but I will stick with 0.2.

Now to fit a model. For this post I will use ETS models

fit <- vic_cafe %>%
  model(ets = ETS(box_cox(Turnover, 0.2)))
fit
## # A mable: 1 x 1
##   ets         
##   <model>     
## 1 <ETS(A,A,A)>

An ETS(A,A,A), or additive Holt-Winters model, has been selected for the transformed data. We can produce forecasts in the usual way.

fc <- fit %>% forecast(h = "3 years")
fc
## # A fable: 36 x 4 [1M]
## # Key:     .model [1]
##    .model    Month Turnover .distribution  
##    <chr>     <mth>    <dbl> <dist>         
##  1 ets    2019 Jan     608. t(N(13, 0.020))
##  2 ets    2019 Feb     563. t(N(13, 0.028))
##  3 ets    2019 Mar     629. t(N(13, 0.036))
##  4 ets    2019 Apr     615. t(N(13, 0.044))
##  5 ets    2019 May     613. t(N(13, 0.052))
##  6 ets    2019 Jun     593. t(N(13, 0.061))
##  7 ets    2019 Jul     624. t(N(13, 0.069))
##  8 ets    2019 Aug     640. t(N(13, 0.077))
##  9 ets    2019 Sep     630. t(N(13, 0.085))
## 10 ets    2019 Oct     642. t(N(13, 0.093))
## # … with 26 more rows

Note that the distributions are given as transformed normal, denoted by t(N). The point forecast (in column Turnover) is the mean of this distribution. The back-transformation and bias adjustment is done automatically.

One particularly clever part of the package (thanks to Mitchell O’Hara-Wild) is that you can use any transformation in the model() function, and the bias adjustment is computed based on a Taylor series expansion using numerical derivatives. So you will always get the approximate mean as the point forecast, even when using some exotic transformation for which you have no analytic expression for the bias.

fc %>% autoplot(vic_cafe)

Bootstrapped prediction intervals

In the preceding analysis, there was still a normality assumption for the residuals of the model applied to the transformed data. If you want to avoid that as well, you can use bootstrapped intervals. These are constructed from simulated future sample paths where the residuals are resampled as possible future errors.

We can simulate future sample paths using the generate() function.

sim <- fit %>% generate(h = "3 years", times = 5, bootstrap = TRUE)
sim
## # A tsibble: 180 x 4 [1M]
## # Key:       .model, .rep [5]
##    .model  .rep    Month  .sim
##    <chr>  <int>    <mth> <dbl>
##  1 ets        1 2019 Jan  583.
##  2 ets        1 2019 Feb  600.
##  3 ets        1 2019 Mar  679.
##  4 ets        1 2019 Apr  669.
##  5 ets        1 2019 May  671.
##  6 ets        1 2019 Jun  624.
##  7 ets        1 2019 Jul  644.
##  8 ets        1 2019 Aug  689.
##  9 ets        1 2019 Sep  702.
## 10 ets        1 2019 Oct  690.
## # … with 170 more rows

Here we have generated five possible sample paths for future months. The .rep variable provides a new key for the tsibble. The back-transformation of the sample paths is handled automatically. If we had multiple models, each would be used to generate future sample paths provided the corresponding generate function existed. (In the current version of fable, we have not yet implemented this for ARIMA models.)

The plot below shows the five sample paths along with the last few years of historical data.

vic_cafe %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2008) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = Month)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = Turnover)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = .sim, colour = as.factor(.rep)), data = sim) +
  ggtitle("Monthly turnover of Victorian cafes") +
  guides(col = FALSE)

Prediction intervals are calculated using percentiles of the future sample paths. This is all built into the forecast() function so you do not need to call generate() directly.

fc <- fit %>% forecast(h = "3 years", bootstrap = TRUE)
fc
## # A fable: 36 x 4 [1M]
## # Key:     .model [1]
##    .model    Month Turnover .distribution     
##    <chr>     <mth>    <dbl> <dist>            
##  1 ets    2019 Jan     608. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
##  2 ets    2019 Feb     563. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
##  3 ets    2019 Mar     629. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
##  4 ets    2019 Apr     615. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
##  5 ets    2019 May     613. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
##  6 ets    2019 Jun     593. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
##  7 ets    2019 Jul     624. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
##  8 ets    2019 Aug     640. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
##  9 ets    2019 Sep     630. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
## 10 ets    2019 Oct     642. t(sim(=dbl[5000]))
## # … with 26 more rows

Notice that the forecast distribution is now represented as transformed simulation with 5000 sample paths. This default number can be modified in the times argument for forecast().

fc %>% autoplot(vic_cafe) +
  ggtitle("Monthly turnover of Victorian cafes")

In this example, the resulting forecast intervals are almost identical to those obtained when we assumed the residuals were normally distributed.

Accuracy calculations

We can check whether the bootstrapping helped by comparing the CRPS values from both models after doing a training/test set split.

train <- vic_cafe %>% filter(year(Month) <= 2014)
fit <- train %>%
  model(ets = ETS(box_cox(Turnover, 0.2)))
fit %>%
  forecast(h = "4 years", bootstrap = FALSE) %>%
  accuracy(vic_cafe,
    measures = distribution_accuracy_measures
  )
## # A tibble: 1 x 4
##   .model .type percentile  CRPS
##   <chr>  <chr>      <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 ets    Test        12.3  24.4
fit %>%
  forecast(h = "4 years", bootstrap = TRUE) %>%
  accuracy(vic_cafe,
    measures = distribution_accuracy_measures
  )
## # A tibble: 1 x 4
##   .model .type percentile  CRPS
##   <chr>  <chr>      <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 ets    Test        12.4  24.5

In this case it makes almost no difference which of the two approaches is used, so the non-bootstrap approach is preferred because it is much faster.