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Ford reported that Kavanaugh was somewhere between a casual acquaintance and a friend. She had been at several events with him in the past. One of the boys that she had dated had introduced him to her.


Finally, during the dreadful event, how did she communicate her unwillingness? Ford use both physical resistance as well as screaming to resist the attack.

Obviously a general study can have little if any bearing evaluating the truth of an individual claim. However, it is worth noting that of the women who responded to this study and the millions they are sampled from, should and would be able to personally to relate to the terrible events that happened these 37 years ago. As a man largely personally insulated from such violent and devastating aggression, I found myself deeply moved by Ford’s testimony.

Reviewing this data personally has been difficult for me.


General Trends

Use of force

Looking more generally at the data in the longitudinal study you can see women who are first interviewed at 18 slowly or quickly move from being yet unvictimized to becoming victims through their college years.

The above figure shows four variables measured at time of entry into college and each year after. The initial year for each variable does not list a number but each year after is numbered sequentially. The chart shows self reported rates from top to bottom of actions women were forced to perform or nearly so through the use of force by males: 1 Sexual acts such a oral or annual sex, 2 Sex play, 3 Intercourse, and 4 unsuccessful attempts at intercourse.

The need for imputation was due to a high drop out rate from the study especially among those who reported such acts. In order to generate the imputed numbers I just assumed that anybody that reported any of the above activities in previous years would report them in future years if they had been interviewed. As a result all of these numbers are under-representational of the actual rates of sexual assault. To calculate the percentages that these values are scaled from, I divided each total number of those being reported by the total sample size 1580.


Use of other coercive means

I also looked at the use of other coercive means in order to obtain or attempt to obtain sex from an unwilling partner.
The interviewers asked the women if they had engaged in sex because of a figure of authority forced them to through their power or position (variable 1) or if someone in authority had attempted to (variable 2). Women seemed most likely to engage in intercourse or sex play because of excessive unwanted attention from men (variables 3 and 4). Men also were successful or attempted to obtain sex through use of excessive alcohol or drugs (variables 5 and 6).


Conclusion
The environment in which Dr. Ford grew up in was a dangerous environment for young women in which men often preyed upon the vulnerable and naive. Obviously only Ford, Kavanaugh, and Mark Judge know what happened in that room. Ford has undergone a lie detector test and requested professional investigators look into her claims while Kavanaughand and Mark Judge have resisted any kind of criminal investigation and refused to submit themselves to a similar polygraph test.

Code on Github

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