Running Back and Wide Receiver Gold Mining – Week 1

The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS: CBS Average, Yahoo Sports, NFL, NumberFire, FantasySharks and FantasyFootballNerd.   For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining.

 Running Backs Standard Scoring

From the graph below notice that:

• Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, Alfred Morris, Rashad Jennings and Darren Sproles are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
• Marshawn Lynch, Ameer Abdullah, Charles Sims, Bishop Sankey and Ronnie Hillman are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
• On the other hand, LeSean McCoy, Carlos Hyde, Alfred Blue, Tevin Coleman and David Johnson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Running Backs Point-per-Reception

From the graph below notice that:

• Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, Andre Ellington, Alfred Morris and Darren Sproles are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
• Ameer Abdullah, Chris Ivory, Isaiah Crowell, Doug Martin and Ronnie Hillman are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
• On the other hand, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller, Tevin Coleman, Roy Helu and David Johnson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Wide Receivers Standard Scoring

The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS: CBS Average, Yahoo Sports, NFL, NumberFire, FantasySharks and FantasyFootballNerd.

From the graph below notice that:

• Odell Beckham, A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery and Jordan Matthews are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
• Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Mike Wallace, Brandon LaFell and Marques Colston are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
• On the other hand, Julio Jones, John Brown, Eddie Royal, Rueben Randle and Brandon Coleman are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Wide Receivers Point-per-Reception

From the graph below notice that:

• A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Matthews and Davante Adams are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
• Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Mike Wallace, Brandon LaFell and Marques Colston are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
• On the other hand, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, John Brown, Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

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