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dynamic mixtures [at NBBC15]

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KleifarvatnA funny coincidence: as I was sitting next to Arnoldo Frigessi at the NBBC15 conference, I came upon a new question on Cross Validated about a dynamic mixture model he had developed in 2002 with Olga Haug and Håvård Rue [whom I also saw last week in Valencià]. The dynamic mixture model they proposed replaces the standard weights in the mixture with cumulative distribution functions, hence the term dynamic. Here is the version used in their paper

(</span><span id="MathJax-Span-237" class="mn">1</span><span id="MathJax-Span-238" class="mo">−</span><span id="MathJax-Span-239" class="msubsup"><span id="MathJax-Span-240" class="mi">w_{</span><span id="MathJax-Span-241" class="texatom"><span id="MathJax-Span-242" class="mrow"><span id="MathJax-Span-243" class="mi">\mu</span><span id="MathJax-Span-244" class="mo">,</span><span id="MathJax-Span-245" class="mi">τ}</span></span></span></span><span id="MathJax-Span-246" class="mo">(</span><span id="MathJax-Span-247" class="mi">x</span><span id="MathJax-Span-248" class="mo">)</span><span id="MathJax-Span-249" class="mo">)</span><span id="MathJax-Span-250" class="msubsup"><span id="MathJax-Span-251" class="mi">f_{</span><span id="MathJax-Span-252" class="texatom"><span id="MathJax-Span-253" class="mrow"><span id="MathJax-Span-254" class="msubsup"><span id="MathJax-Span-255" class="mi">β</span><span id="MathJax-Span-256" class="mn">,\lambda}</span></span></span></span></span><span id="MathJax-Span-257" class="mo">(</span><span id="MathJax-Span-258" class="mi">x</span><span id="MathJax-Span-259" class="mo">)</span><span id="MathJax-Span-260" class="mo">+</span><span id="MathJax-Span-261" class="msubsup"><span id="MathJax-Span-263" class="texatom"><span id="MathJax-Span-264" class="mrow"><span id="MathJax-Span-267" class="mi"><span id="MathJax-Span-239" class="msubsup"><span id="MathJax-Span-240" class="mi">w_{</span><span id="MathJax-Span-241" class="texatom"><span id="MathJax-Span-242" class="mrow"><span id="MathJax-Span-243" class="mi">\mu</span><span id="MathJax-Span-244" class="mo">,</span><span id="MathJax-Span-245" class="mi">τ}</span></span></span></span><span id="MathJax-Span-246" class="mo"></span></span></span></span></span><span id="MathJax-Span-268" class="mo">(</span><span id="MathJax-Span-269" class="mi">x</span><span id="MathJax-Span-270" class="mo">)</span><span id="MathJax-Span-271" class="msubsup"><span id="MathJax-Span-272" class="mi">g_{</span><span id="MathJax-Span-273" class="texatom"><span id="MathJax-Span-274" class="mrow"><span id="MathJax-Span-275" class="mi">ϵ</span><span id="MathJax-Span-276" class="mo">,</span><span id="MathJax-Span-277" class="mi">σ}</span></span></span></span><span id="MathJax-Span-278" class="mo">(</span><span id="MathJax-Span-279" class="mi">x</span><span id="MathJax-Span-280" class="mo">)\qquad x>0

where f is a Weibull density, g a generalised Pareto density, and w is the cdf of a Cauchy distribution [all distributions being endowed with standard parameters]. While the above object is not a mixture of a generalised Pareto and of a Weibull distributions (instead, it is a mixture of two non-standard distributions with unknown weights), it is close to the Weibull when x is near zero and ends up with the Pareto tail (when x is large). The question was about simulating from this distribution and, while an answer was in the paper, I replied on Cross Validated with an alternative accept-reject proposal and with a somewhat (if mildly) non-standard MCMC implementation enjoying a much higher acceptance rate and the same fit.


Filed under: R, Statistics Tagged: Arnoldo Frigessi, component of a mixture, cross validated, dynamic mixture, extremes, Havard Rue, NBBC15 conference, O-Bayes 2015, Pareto distribution, R, Reykjavik, Valencia conferences, Weibull distribution

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