Skew of Bonds
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As the researchpuzzler highlights in “a bad bet”, US bonds were a popular subject at the CFA Institute Annual Conference. While US Bonds have been in an amazing 30 year run (see previous posts Lattice Explore Bonds, Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 1, Calmar Ratio 1.37 over the past 20 years), I think many positive skew-chasing market participants are not aware of the frequency of negative skew in bond returns. As a public service, I thought I should issue a negative skew alert.
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From TimelyPortfolio |
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require(quantmod) | |
require(PerformanceAnalytics) | |
#load my barclays agg file | |
#if you do not have access to Barclays Agg return then you can | |
#use VBMFX as a proxy | |
portfolio <- read.csv("C:\\Users\\Kent.TLEAVELL_NT\\Documents\\old\\R\\barclaysagg.csv",stringsAsFactors=FALSE) | |
portfolio <- portfolio[2:(NROW(portfolio)-1),2:NCOL(portfolio)] | |
portfolio <- portfolio[,c(1,4)] | |
#since export has duplicate colnames we need to remove the .1 added | |
#colnames(portfolio) <- substr(colnames(portfolio),1,nchar(colnames(portfolio))-2) | |
#transform to get in appropriate xts form | |
len <- nchar(portfolio[,1]) | |
xtsdate <- paste(substr(portfolio[,1],len-3,len),"-", | |
ifelse(len==9,"0",""),substr(portfolio[,1],1,len-8),"-01",sep="") | |
portfolio.xts <- xts(data.matrix(portfolio[,2:NCOL(portfolio)]),order.by=as.Date(xtsdate)) | |
portfolio.xts <- portfolio.xts/100 | |
portfolio.xts[1,]<-0 | |
#########start skew analysis################################################ | |
colnames(portfolio.xts) <- "BarclaysAgg" | |
#get rolling skew | |
skew <- apply.rolling(portfolio.xts[,1],FUN=skewness,width=36,by=1) | |
#combine skew with ROC | |
skew.roc <- merge(skew, | |
ROC(apply(portfolio.xts[,1]+1,MARGIN=2,FUN=cumprod),type="discrete",n=36)) | |
colnames(skew.roc)<-c("skew","roc") | |
#plot skew and roc | |
chart.TimeSeries(skew.roc, main="Barclays US Aggregate Skew and ROC (Rolling 36-month)", | |
legend.loc="topright") |
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